Friday, April 04, 2008

Bill Gross: "T-Bonds overvalued"

Bill Gross, chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Company, or PIMCO on bonds:

"I think Treasuries are the most overvalued asset in the world, bar none" (Reuters article)

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Coming from him, that is something that makes me sit up and take notice because bonds are his primary business. Barrons also has a bearish column on bonds (link). Given all this bearishness, bonds are likely to push higher in the short term.

Meanwhile, Friday's stock market action is encouraging. If the stock market was going to tank, it had every opportunity to do so, with the weak employment report, and decent rally this week for longs to go home for the weekend flat with a profit. Some sectors are still weak, including big banks, and airlines. With the terrible news in airlines this week, it is a time to be looking at them. Though, as always, calling bottom is rarely a profitable game.

As for gold, it had a relief rally after the big plunge. Seems that the coupling to oil, remains very strong. I still think lower lows are likely for gold, though, the secular bull still has a long time to go. This means short term lower, long term much higher. I still don't like the risk/reward for traders--readers know I am not a gunslinger who likes making the big bets.

Positions: long MON hedged

1 comment:

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