Monday, April 21, 2008

In 2025 (China) and super cycles

Interesting reading from Barron's (article)

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PricewaterhouseCoopers forecasts that China will be the largest economy, having surpassed the U.S. in 2025. By 2050, Chinese gross domestic product will be 29% larger than that of the U.S.
...
the fastest growing economy of the next four decades is forecast to be Vietnam, PwC says, with GDP growing 9.8% per annum, measured in dollars and 6.8% as measured using purchasing power parity.

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Mexico's bonds, rated triple-B or the equivalent, have seen their yields decline below what the bonds of triple-A-rated General Electric pay. That bears repeating: Triple-B Mexico bonds yield less than triple-A GE debt.

Mexico's benchmark dollar-pay bonds due 2015 yield 4.65%. A triple-A GECC bond due 2012 yields 4.65% while a GECC issue due 2017 yields 5.33%.

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Like I said interesting reading.

In a separate article there is discussion of 60 year-super cycles that suggests a top in bonds, with much higher interest rates on the way, sooner rather than later, and a top in commodities in about one year give or take.
article

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