Friday, April 11, 2008

Billy don't be a hero

I resist the temptation to buy IWM (actually sell puts as usual) near closing time. The market looks to me like it is prime for a decent rally from here. The topic is the title of an old song: Billy don't be a hero, don't be a fool with your life. How many times have I written that calling bottom and rushing in to buy is a difficult game, and often means more risk than reward.

With hindsight glasses, I should have stayed short SMH, short VLO, and even long NKE. Overall with this skittish market, it is better to be a live chicken with a few pecks of profit than a brave and dead tiger that stood his/her ground.

Long MON hedged

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