Buy SPY (sell puts)

Buy SPY via selling Feb 98 puts, SPY at 114.4

I kind of expect a mild sell off. However, these puts are at the 5% chance of expiring in the money, and I don't expect a steep sell off. Support for SPY at 103 and then 101.

I already have short SPY Jan 104 puts, but unless something like a major meteor strike happens those Januaries won't come into play.

I listened to the ThinkorSwim Friday market recap (if a person goes to their site and registers they can find the archives or listen to the next Friday recap). One nugget is that the VIX futures and options are already pricing in an expansion in volatility that often comes with a sell off. Another nugget was that some big tech stocks such as AMZN and GOOG are correcting, without their option volatility expanding. Another interesting bit is that many day traders and short term traders are trading from the short side, and haven't been making any money because the dips have been so shallow.

I can't draw any tradeable conclusions from all the above. Though, it seems to me to me that that odds of a big stock market sell off are tiny. That may happen much later in the year, but extremely unlikely in the near term.

Gold is up big today. Again, for those looking to short gold this is the kind of entry point to look for, after a dip then a rally still below resistance. That said, the long term trend remains up for gold.

Long SPY (2 positions), TLT