Monday, January 25, 2010

Rally failure in stocks?

A few entries back I wrote about a possible rally failure in gold. Now it may be the time for the stock market. I'll repeat that calling top tends to be entertaining, not profitable. The higher percentage play tends to be to wait for a top to establish and short the rally failure, and that time may be here and now.

A 10% correction is normal and healthy. However, 10% down for SPY in a single month tends to be an exceptionally bad down month. So while a decline may be in the cards, I doubt it will be steep and sudden like the 2008/2009 bear market action. If there is to be an air pocket, it would be more likely later in the year (September/October).

I was tempted to double on my stock market position today, but an up day didn't provide a compelling entry point. I do see lower lows to be likely, but not a big immediate drop.

Long GLD, SPY, TLT

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