Thursday, August 19, 2010

Confirmation Bias

Random Roger (blog link) mentions an interview with Felix Zulauf (link2). I found the concept of "confirmation bias" to be interesting.

In plain English it means seeking out and reading only information that confirms a person's opinion. With the Internet, virtually any position can be confirmed with outside sources. There is a fine line in having enough conviction to take a market position, and being so stubborn that all evidence on the other side gets ignore.

When I was a beginner trader I remember reading or hearing something along the lines of this:
Q: "What is your secret to trading?"
A: "Be bold, and be right."

Q: "What happens if you are wrong?"
A: "You go down with the ship."

Obviously, this "gunslinger" approach, is a far cry from how I trade today.

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