Tuesday, August 10, 2010

The Fed as Goldilocks

Bonds, stocks, gold all are up half an hour after the Fed statement. The Goldilocks comment is about the fable about being too big, too small, and then just right. Historically, it is unusual that all three markets can move up together.

We will see if I can get it "just right" and have all my August short options go off the board worthless (or at least closed for a profit).

Sentiment for bonds is getting touchier because comments and predictions for 2.5% or even 2.0% on the 10-year Treasury note are more numerous. At some point all the little fish that have piled their money into bonds will likely get burned badly. However, today is not that day, tomorrow isn't likely to be that day, and if I had to bet, a year from now we will still be waiting.

* Moments after posting, TLT (20 year bond ETF) went from being up a full point to down. So, wow, how quickly can a person become wrong when making statements.

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