The end of the week after expiration is often the time during the option cycle that I sell options. However, I am not in a mood to take on more risk. Covering TBT puts at a big percentage loss the other day, likely contributes to my skittishness. As I have said before, when things turn south, trading smaller, taking on less risk is often the best way to regain the mojo.
I am leaning bullish on bonds, bearish on stocks, bearish on gold. Seasonality points towards up for bonds, down for stocks, up for gold. That said, with all the cross currents, just about any move in any market wouldn't be a huge surprise to me.
There is a quite a bit of chatter about insurance against Black Swan type of events. Mostly about another big drop in the stock market, and the bubble in the bond market. While a big drop seems unlikely when people are talking about it, a scary but limited drop of 10% or 20% wouldn't surprise me.
No comments:
Post a Comment