Saturday, January 21, 2017

So far so good, 40-1 grade A-

I count 40 winners, 1 loser for the January option cycle, for a grade of A-. This results in the small but useful gain of +1.7%. Minor negatives were some over trading in BRKB and being a bit too cautious.

Precious metals and emerging markets rebound sharply to start the year, after ending 2016 near their lows. A few etfs for 2017 year to date, best to worst:

SLV +7.1% silver
GLD +5.0% gold

EEM +4.0% emerging market stocks
SPY +1.4% S&P 500 U.S. large cap

TLT +0.7% U.S. 20 year treasuries
IWM -0.3% Russell 2000 U.S. small cap

Again, my account up 1.7%. So far so good, for three weeks. I still see a lot of online negativity and chatter about a steep stock market decline. This makes the odds of that happening exceedingly small. I am still looking at banks, defense, oil, as some secular bullish themes. The overall optimism about the economy may extend further into airlines and hotels.

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