Sunday edition
I promised to take another look at GLD vs. XLE (gold vs. the oil EFT), here is a link to a chart (link). At first glance it looks like XLE is leading GLD, but a second look at the converse chart with XLE as primary (2nd link) and it doesn't look that way. One possible scenario that I mentioned is that gold will make a failing top, like oil did recently.
This 3rd link is to BigCharts 10-day chart on the GLD (link). It will show the latest chart, so if you are reading this in the archives, that will not be the one I am commenting on. The 10-day chart shows little to be excited about. The trendline support at 53.5 ($535 spot gold) has been tested three times and held, with a minor rally up at options expiration.
Some gold bugs on other boards seem excited about this three day support rally, I am not. The entire rally might be options expiration related with spot gold being "pinned" to a popular strike price of 550. Some of the arrogance and swagger has returned to the bull's step. I continue to think it is a high risk time to be long gold. I lean towards the short side but that is not without risk either.
Linking the pictures here will slow the loading of this page, and takes a lot more time to post. So follow the links if you want to see the charts, my apologies.
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