Friday, February 17, 2006

Over analyzing vs. snap decisions

Noonish EST
Gold, silver, oil continue to rally. I am looking at two possible scenarios. The first is a new high on low volume followed by a sharp decline, similar to the recent top in oil. The second is a flag or pennant with the recent highs, $575 gold, $9.90 silver as the top of the formation. The break out or break down from the flag would determine bullish or bearishness. The current time seems like a high risk entry to go long or short the metals or the mining shares. Gold, silver and copper shares topped the Yahoo industry leaders this morning. (link)

A few stocks moving on earnings news: Dell down, Intuit down, Nividia up, Radio Shack down. (DELL, INTU, NVDA, RSH).

Off topic but interesting is a short article in the Aussie Herald Sun on over analyzing vs. snap decisions, the test shows being distracted when making complex decisions such as buying a car resulted in better decisions. (link) .

Certainly I have been known to over analyze a trade. Sometimes it is as simple as checking off the news event, the sentiment, the technicals and fundamentals, all very quickly and pulling the trigger or sitting still. Seems like a lot, and it is, but for students of the market all the above can be given a quick yay or nay in a relatively short period of time.

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